US export restrictions on AI chips: what do they mean for the world, the gaming industry and … Poland?

The US has introduced new export restrictions on advanced chips and artificial intelligence (AI) models. The official aim is to protect national security. However, the consequences of these measures may be felt by companies around the world – including in the gaming industry, and even in Poland. In the article below, we explain what exactly these restrictions are, who they affect and what long-term effects they may have on AI development.

What are the new restrictions?

The main ideas are found in the document ‘Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion’, issued by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS). The document places restrictions on the export of advanced integrated circuits (ICs) and AI model scales to selected countries. The restrictions are intended to prevent the unauthorised use of these technologies in areas that could potentially threaten US interests and security.

Why is the US imposing restrictions?

A key concern of the US authorities relates to the use of advanced technologies in a manner contrary to US interests. Potential threats cited by government experts include:

1. Military and intelligence applications of AI by countries considered potential adversaries.
2. Development of weapons of mass destruction, supported by AI algorithms in design and production processes.
3. Risk of advanced cyber attacks, facilitated by powerful chips and machine learning methods.
4. Mass surveillance of citizens using facial recognition and data analytics technologies.

Restrictions are intended to prevent access to these solutions by entities that could destabilise the international situation or threaten US security. At the same time, the US wants to allow those countries and companies that comply with security rules and use AI chips responsibly.

Which processors do the restrictions cover?

The restrictions mainly affect high-performance computing chips, crucial in the processes of training and deploying advanced AI models. Among these are:

• GPUs (Graphical Processing Units), e.g. Nvidia A100, H100
• TPUs (Tensor Processing Units), such as Google TPUs
• Neural Processors, In-memory Processors, Vision Processors
• Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs )
• Field-Programmable Logic Devices (FPLDs ).

It is these types of circuits that make it possible to build and train the most complex neural networks, used for example in image analysis systems, speech recognition or natural language processing.

Do gamers have reason to be concerned?

Although the restrictions mainly focus on processors for data centre and professional AI applications, some high-performance GPUs used in gaming laptops may meet the criteria described in the BIS document. However:

• Manufacturers such as Nvidia do not disclose detailed specifications, making it difficult to assess whether a particular GPU model is subject to the restrictions.
• However, most gaming GPUs have much lower processing power than chips used in data centres, so the risk of restrictions in the gaming area remains relatively low.

Why is Poland on the list?

It comes as asurprise that Poland is also on the list of restricted countries. The annual limit set by the US authorities for the import of chips from the US to Poland is 50,000 units, with the possibility of increasing it to 100,000.

• Deputy Minister of Digitalisation Dariusz Standerski admits that in the short term this should not significantly harm the development of AI in Poland.
• In the longer term, however, the cap may slow down investment in cutting-edge AI solutions and limit Polish companies’ access to the latest chips.

Reaction from Nvidia and the European Commission

The new regulations have drawn criticism from key technology players and representatives of the European Union:

• Nvidia officially expressed concern that the restrictions would limit innovation and the global competitiveness of the US technology sector.
• The European Commission published a statement highlighting the importance of a secure transatlantic AI supply chain. The Commission believes that the free purchase of AI chips from US companies is in both the economic and security interests of the United States, and looks forward to finding a constructive compromise with the US administration.

Potential consequences of the new rules

The introduction of export restrictions creates uncertainty in the high-tech market. Here are some scenarios that could materialise:

1. Further tightening of restrictions – the US may expand the list of restricted solutions or countries.
2. Easing of regulations – under international pressure and industry lobbying, the US may grant export licences for some chips.
3. Price increases and supply delays – limited chip availability may affect higher costs for manufacturers and consumers and cause production downtime.
4. Development of alternative technologies – countries affected by restrictions may choose to build their own ecosystem of AI solutions and become independent of US supply.
5. International cooperation – countries affected by restrictions may strengthen relationships in the area of research and development, creating new AI initiatives and projects.

Impact on AI development and innovation

Lack of access to state-of-the-art AI chips and models can effectively hinder research, especially in countries and companies that relied on US processors:

• Slower scientific progress – difficulties in acquiring the necessary hardware will delay research work in areas such as medicine or pharmaceuticals.
• Fragmentation of the AI market – restrictions may lead to the formation of technology blocks, hindering global collaboration and knowledge sharing.
• Inhibition ofinnovation – restrictions on access to key components will lengthen the path to the introduction of new products and services.
• Increased international tensions – restrictions may exacerbate relations between global powers, especially when strategic technologies are involved.

Summary and outlook

The new US export restrictions on advanced chips and AI models send an important signal to the world. On the one hand, they are intended to prevent the dangerous use of AI; on the other, they are already causing concern in the markets and may slow down the global development of artificial intelligence.

Poland, despite its so far marginal role in the market for advanced AI processors, is not excluded from the US action. Limits on chip imports may limit the pace of adoption of new technologies in our country in the future. In the long term, much depends on whether the US relaxes or tightens existing regulations, as well as how individual countries respond to these challenges – whether they choose to strengthen international cooperation or build autonomous AI ecosystems.

Ultimately, the changes being implemented by the US require a balance between protecting national security and maintaining continuity and freedom in the development of modern solutions. Keeping an eye on developments is crucial, especially as the AI industry continues to grow in strength year after year and underpins many areas of the economy and science.